Falling Populations

[Runner]

I read and interesting article talking about how the population in many of the world's countries will fall over the next century.  Japan is supposed to lose about 30 million people over the next century, and many parts of Europe will also shrink.  From a simple-minded standpoint... mine... this seems like a good thing, as this planet is seriously overcrowded with humanoids.  But I also realize this means that the aging or aged population will be getting much bigger in proportion to the working population.  This will cause problems for everyone.  Sometimes it seems like the countries that can least afford population explosions, like many in Africa, have large families, while the countries that could use the extra people, like several stable European countries, have small families.  Is there a way around this problem?

[Josh]

I think that the level of population growth is very closely related to the level of industrial development of an area. Places like the US and developed countries in Europe have much lower growth rates than places like you mentioned, in Africa. So I think it's somewhat ironic that the more an area is able to support a growing population, the less it really has need to, since growth in industrial capacity tends to mean a decrease in population growth. I'm not sure if this is always true, but it seems to be a trend. As far as fixing this problem, per se, I imagine once the areas you mentioned become developed enough, the population growth will naturally slow down like it has everywhere else. It's not that these people have anything better to do than have kids, again and again, it's just that large families are more necessary in order to be productive and earn a living. People here in the US used to have big families until both parents started working in jobs and such as society developed. I think something along the same lines might eventually happen in other places too. So if you want to decrease population growth in an area, the best bet is probably to increase industrial development. As for fixing the opposite problem, declining local populations, I think eventually there is a stable balance that will be met. You're right, though, something will have to be done about the fact that older people are becoming a larger percentage of the population. I think this is rather unavoidable because of increased longevity, but I haven't any ideas myself on how to solve this problem.

[Firefly]

these is truly a difficult problem.  however, i must interject and state that we shouldn't forget about the role of birth control in all this.  the europeans have it, use it, and love it, with a few exceptions.  same for the japanese.  most africans don't even have access to it, though.  in many undeveloped countries, think mexico and all of south america, a certain church which will remain nameless has crusaded vigilantly against the use of contraception, with very ill effects.

[Gee3666]

Population fluctuations are a common and integral part of human existence.  As, you pointed out Josh, alot of it has to do with the level of industrialism and technological development that a particular society has achieved.  Another part of the equation is the cultural idiosyncrasies that are present in a given society.  "Be fruitful and multiply' is a statement that has many deep rooted cultural meanings in many areas around the world.  Some cultures see virility and multiple offspring as symbols of stability, security, longevity and even divinity.  Keep these things in mind when you embark on this subject.

[JohnP]

I think that values and beliefs and industrialization have a large part to play, but I think birth control plays an equally big role.  I would bet my life on the fact that the population of certain Eastern European countries would not be declining were it not for the ability of woman to choose whether or not to create life.

[Maximus]

I just read that the US will soon cross the 300M mark.  Luckily, we are not a geographically challenged country.  We still have plenty of open space.  The article I read cited birth-rates in various countries, and I was shocked at how low they are.  Dozens of countries (mostly European) have a birth rate well below 2.0, which is the minimum required to sustain a population without immigration.  It will be interesting to see how the face of the world changes over the next few decades.

[FPENA98]

The Russians and the Japanese seem to be in real trouble, the Japanese because they don't allow any significant immigration into their country and the Russians with so many social problems are also slowly dying off but you're right all of Europe is slowly depopulating.  We're unique among developed countries which is a good thing, with our strong immigration our population will grow, the face of America will be more Hispanic in the coming century.  Unless there's a redistribution of population in the coming century they'll be a lot of empty houses in Europe and Japan and a lot of top heavy societies with a large population of elderly and a small population of young people, think waht that'll do to the economies and social programs in these countries.

[udo]

I think if we don't get Bush out of office soon, the world's population in all species except cockroaches will decrease dramatically overnight. 

"He can turn this country into what it once was!  An arctic region covered in ice."  --paraphrase of Steve Martin

[Josh]

Well, Bush is leaving office in 2008, no doubts about it this time. I'm sure the world will survive a couple more years.

I'm not too worried about some sort of nuclear war that wipes out all species (except the aforementioned roaches). The worry that a single nuke might get into the hands of the wrong people is a very valid one, however. If you're talking about falling populations, war is definitely a factor in many areas. Bring nukes into the equation, and yeah. Personally I think this is a great reason to get people off planet as quickly as possible. Hedge the bets, as it were. Not that space is extremely hospitable. But I'm hoping we at least have a decent population on the moon before the century is out. Maybe I'll even live to see it happen.

Anyway, I think people blame Bush for things more than they ought. Not that he isn't culpable for quite a few things, but I doubt falling populations is one of them. Unless of course you consider the butterfly effect, where the smallest actions have at least a slight contribution to every other action in the world. For instance: Bush sneezes, and that extra kinetic energy in the air travels and spawns a hurricane halfway round the world 

[Firefly]

For instance: Bush sneezes, and that extra kinetic energy in the air travels and spawns a hurricane halfway round the world

entirely possible, in my humble opinion.  that man is capable of great wrongdoing.

[DR]

I think that the change in demographics many countries are experiencing will have dramatic effects on their welfare.  I don't envy younger people in many European countries (or Japan for that matter).  With elder care getting extremely expensive, these youngsters are in for quite a burden.

[Josh]

Makes our own Social Security issues seem not quite so bad. Hopefully we'll be able to see what these other countries do in response to the falling population/rising average age of their citizens, and figure out something ourselves too. I've no idea if Social Security will still be around when I retire, but hopefully something is in place.

[udo]

I think that the change in demographics many countries are experiencing will have dramatic effects on their welfare.  I don't envy younger people in many European countries (or Japan for that matter).  With elder care getting extremely expensive, these youngsters are in for quite a burden.

This is why it's critical that celebrities like Madonna adopt African babies.  So they'll support me when I age.

[Maximus]

I've no idea if Social Security will still be around when I retire

I wouldn't count on that one.  It's been a while since I looked at the figures, but I do remember that the younger generation is getting an extremely raw deal.  In other words, today's younger workers are effectively financing the retirements of millions, but will receive no such benefit themselves.