Another Mexican Crisis?

[FPENA98]

The true test of this new movement and Mr. Obrador will be shown in how they react to Mr. Cardenas.  If they dismiss him and disassociate themselves from him then they truly have no principles and no respect for dissent and it will probably be the beginning of the end of this new movement.  we shall see how Obrador and his people react.

[FPENA98]

Seems like the drama isn't yet over, today, supporters of Mr. Calderon the President elect, and Mr. Lopez Obrador got into a fist fight outside a state legislature where a governor of Mr. Calderon's party was being sworn in with Mr. Calderon present.  It seems after Mr. Calderon left and the Federal Police and Presidential Guard contingent that protect him, both camps had it out!  Let's hope things don't get too much worse than this.  Mr. Obrador promised to make the time between now and Dec. 1st when Mr. Calderon takes power very interesting, we shall see what he has in mind.

[FPENA98]

There's a crisis has been brewing under the headlines in the southern state of Oaxaca for months now, striking teachers have shut down the capital city and won't leave until the governor of the state resigns and their other demands are met.  They claim he stole the 2004 election and that he has been supressing them and their union since he took office.  The governor attempted to remove the protesters from the town square but they successfully repelled his attempted removal.  The federal government and Mr. Fox have stayed out of the crisis but it has become more involved lately especially after the governor attempted to forcefully remove the protesters.  The teachers want higher pay for their work in one of Mexico's poorest states.  Some of their demands are not unreasonable however their strike has caused much inconvenience and lost income as well as the cancellation of the academic school year for kids.  Lately, army air power has been seen flying over the capital and troops have been moving down closer to Oaxaca.  The government claims this is routine, however, this has increased tension as some fear that federal troops could be used to displace the protesters.  Mr. Fox is in a very difficult situation, the APPO as it is known in Spanish was about to meet with representatives from the federal government but they have since cancelled their meeting after the supposed movement of federal troops into the state.  The federal government is between a rock and a hard place, they could remove the governor and give in to the APPO's demands, however, what's to keep groups in every other state in the union from doing the same when there are policies they don't agree with.  They could try to remove the protesters by force but that will no doubt lead to bloodshed.  The last thing Mexico needs right now is another crisis, especially a violent one.

[Maximus]

A violent teacher's union!  That's very interesting.  Of any militant group, I would least expect teachers to be making such a strong statement.  I know they wield incredible power here in the US, and enjoy some of the best retirement plans around, but in Mexico they seem even more militant. 

[FPENA98]

Unions in Mexico are powerful, they have lost their power in recent years, however, they are an important political actor without question.  During the 70 years of the PRI's hold on power, the unions were a part of the ruling party.  The unions guaranteed their support to the ruling party in exchange for economic benefits, high wages and guaranteed employment.  Now that unions are no longer so associated with the political elites of the country as closely as before they are starting to exert their political power in other ways like the teachers down in Oaxaca.  Don't get me wrong they still wield much power as most government workers are unionized as are everything from taxi drivers in many cities to police men.  I feel we will see much more union related disturbances in the years to come, especially with the continuation of right or right of center economic policies with Mr. Calderon as President.  The country has been awash in cash right now, billions coming in from the United States from immigrants working here and billions from record oil profits.  However, now with oil prices falling and more pressure being put on illegal migrations into the United States Mexico could find itself short of funds as it attempts to quell the demands of the varying unions in the country, if this situation materializes, Mexico's government could find itself under increased pressure from militant unions and organizations who will demand more and more benefits from a cash strapped government.  This may lead to more and more demostrations like those down in Oaxaca.  Let's hope this does not happen.

[Maximus]

I did not realize that Mexico has been unjoying unusual cash flow of late.  Where does the money go?  A visit to many a border town suggests that the lower-levels of society see none of the benefit of this good fortune.

[FPENA98]

That's the historical tragedy of Mexico.  So rich in natural resources and its entrepreneurial people are ay so poor.  The bloated government and the monopolitic economy no doubt waste billions or dollars that an efficient economy would not.  When you have to provide for the retirement of millions of retired government workers, a state oil company, a federal electrical secretariat, a federal education secretariat, yes, in Mexico public education is controlled not at the local level but at the federal level.  All the corruption and cronyism, all these legacies of an authoritarian government continue to hold Mexico back from becoming more developed and with hundreds of other government agencies and programs there will be a lot of waste.  Elections in Mexico are public enterprises and the government just spent millions and millions of dollars financing all these elections.  There is so much wrong with Mexico and its economy and couple that with an inept political system the future does not look good for Mexico.  In the last six years there was not one major economic reform passed through the Congress by the President because the Congress refused to compromise.  Until the population begins to hold its politicians accountable I fear Mexico will not grow as fast as it needs to.  This Presidential term will be very important it seems to me for the next 20 years, because if many of the major reforms are not implemented within the next Presidential term the economy will not grow and if that happens a leftist will probably win the next election for President in six years and we can forget about economic reforms if a leftist comes to power.  I'm pessimistic of the future of Mexico unless there is some form of compromise or coalition building that gets many of the critical reforms through the Congress. 

[FPENA98]

This Friday, December 1st, President-elect Calderon is set to take the oath of office as President of Mexico.   This ceremony has traditionally taken place in the Chamber of Deputies.  The left PRD party, who still refuse to recognize Calderon,  in an attempt to thwart this attempted to once again take control of the dias of the Chamber, however, unlike the past, the members of Mr. Calderon's party, the PAN, decided to fight back and take control of the dias.  The PAN happens to have the plurality in the new Mexican Congress and in the Chamber of Deputies.  The leadership has stated that if necessary they'll use force to make certain Mr. Calderon takes the oath of office something the left has pledged to prevent.  There was a major altercation inside the Chamber of Deputies yesterday ala the Korean and Taiwanese legislatures with deputies from one party attacking those of the other, PRD and PAN, the left and right leaning parties.  It is disconcerting the lack of compromise by both parties, but particularly the left which has installed Mr. Lopez Obrador as the "legitimate" President of Mexico with a shadow cabinet.  No one in Mexico seems to be doing anything in the interest of the country and its stability.  This is exactly what Mexico does not need especially with a major conflict in the south of the country in the state of Oaxaca and drug violence that has reached unprecedented levels both in numbers and in sheer viciousness with decapitations and mutilations rarely seen before in Mexico.

[udo]

I feel for the Mexican people, that they have to deal with this going on.  Times here, in the USA are less certain than when I was a kid, and I feel like we're a stable country.  I cannot imagine what it must be like living in a country where your vote is, essentially, meaningless because if the outcome is disputed it will just be a gunfight.

[DR]

I hear Calderon has seized the weapons of Mexican police officers in Tijuana.  It's a bit scary when you can't trust your own police force.  I hope he succeeds in cleaning up the country a bit. 

[FPENA98]

Yes, it was quite funny, the local officers were relegated to using sling shots as thier primary weapons of defense.  Unfortunately this will do nothing to clean up Tijuana as it is a border town full of drugs and drug traffickers.  However, it was something that no Mexican President had ever done before.  There is a very violent war going on especially in Southern Mexico between the Mexican Government and the drug lords.  Calderon is being bold in his actions but I fear that not much will change.  The Mexican Government/Army is the only institution left that can take on the drug lords and should it be perceived that the drug lords succeed over the Mexican state it will truly become a very scary place it may even become another Colombia which it already resembles but for the lack of a major organization capable of taking on the government like the Marxist guerilla down in Colombia.  I fear that the drug lords could become the Marxist guerilla of Mexico.